Actively act, the country moves

	Vietnam’s economic achievements in 2018
	Party, State leader warns against self-satisfaction
	Economic integration is faced with many changes in the new context

Economy in 2018 - outstanding marks

Entering 2018, besides the advantages and optimism of the domestic economy, inheriting and promoting the achievements of 2017, the world economy had many positive signals; the economy in 2018 also faced many risks and challenges in a volatile economic environment. However, the spirit of strong participation in the whole political system, and the support of the whole society, international organizations and businesses... have created a synergy to overcome difficulties and take advantage of opportunities, thereby creating a positive impression for the economy in 2018.

We completed 12/12 targets assigned by the National Assembly, in which 8 targets exceeded the plan and 4 targets reached the plan, contributing to the successful implementation of the 5-year socio-economic development targets. The outstanding mark of the economy in 2018 was that the macro economy continued to be stable, ensuring great economic balances, creating a favorable environment and driving force for socio-economic development. The inflation index was controlled, successfully implemented the inflation control targets, the average annual consumer price growth rate was below 4%, exceeding the target assigned by the National Assembly. The money market, banking activities were in line with the orientation of maintaining macroeconomic stability.

With the efforts of the Government in economic management as well as in the production and business of enterprises, GDP growth was estimated to increase by 6.8%, reaching higher than the National Assembly's target (6.5-6.7%), the quality of growth has been initially improved in the direction of sustainability and efficiency, gradually reduced the dependence on exploitation of natural resources, creating a new driving force for development. Thanks to the continued implementation of effective restructuring of the industry, production areas in three product axes (National, provincial and local specialties), the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector has recovered clearly, estimated to increase by about 3.65%. Industry and construction sector growth was about 8.89%, of which industry growth was about 8.98%, continuing the trend of higher growth than the general growth rate in the past years, intra-industry restructuring has been more sustainable.

Another highlight was that the total realized social investment capital of the whole year was estimated at VND 1,890 trillion, an increase of 13.3% compared to 2017 (2017 increased by 12.2%) and equal to 34% of GDP, reaching the target assigned by the National Assembly. Notably, the investment structure of the whole society has changed positively, the role of the private economy has been improved, reflected in the proportion of investment from the population and private enterprises, which accounted for 42.4% of the total realized social investment capital (accounted for 40.6% in 2017). In particular, attracting and disbursing investment capital with foreign factors was quite good. In the difficult context, investors still deployed capital disbursement and continued to invest in business expansion in Vietnam, which was a very positive signal.

Also in 2018, goods import and export increased highly, estimated to reach 475 billion USD for the whole year, up 11.7% compared to 2017. This was a very positive result in the context of the complicated situation of the world and the region, with many risks around the US-China trade war. The business and investment environment continued to be improved; business development, business registration and cooperative development have achieved positive results. The Government continued to promote the review and reduction of administrative procedures, unreasonable business conditions that hinder production and business activities of people and businesses.

Challenges and motivation for the economy in 2019

In the context of 2019 economy when Vietnam can embrace many opportunities, there are many positive opinions about the economic picture in 2019. However, there are still many concerns for the target of economic growth set out. This comes from the risk challenges: The world economy will decline, have unpredictable developments, unpredictable impacts of the US-China trade war, and the economy still has many problems and weaknesses.

Vietnam is considered one of the open economies. In comparison with major economies, Vietnam ranks at the “top” for economic openness. Therefore, any big or small changes in the world will have an immediate and big impact on Vietnam’s economy. When the world economy declines, the unpredictable impact of the US-China trade war will significantly affect our economy. Although export in recent years and the fact that this year is the third consecutive year of trade surplus, statistics show that the FDI enterprises account for about 70% of the total export turnover of the country. This means, although economic growth is high, most of the generated value belongs to the FDI enterprises and the domestic share is very small. Thus, people's life has improved slowly despite high growth. Moreover, the growth motivation of export from the FDI enterprises, which is also finite and often unsustainable, can change very quickly when the world economy changes.

Economic development plan for the period 2016 - 2020. Chart: Phuong Anh

In the country, the problems and weaknesses of the economy that must be mentioned first is that the quality of growth has been slow and unstable; labor productivity and competitiveness have still been low, have not become deeply involved in the production network and global value chain yet. High-tech application in many sectors and fields has been still limited. To achieve the growth target, Vietnam is relying heavily on credit and the FDI sector. Vietnam's growth target must always be based on “big” FDI units, without these corporations, Vietnam's growth will slow down. This situation of Vietnam's economy has been going on for many years.

For economic development in 2019, in addition to responding positively and quickly to changes and thoroughly resolving the above challenges, Vietnam needs to promote the growth motives for economic development to achieve better results. Regarding the motivation for Vietnam's growth in the coming time, besides the 3 strategic breakthroughs including institutional reform, infrastructure development and human resource training, innovation, creativity on the 4.0 platform and private economic development are considered two new growth engines that Vietnam needs to pay attention to exploit and utilize so that Vietnam's economy will have strong mobility in the future.