Comments by experts on Vietnam’s securities market outlook

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Mr. Truong Hien Phuong

The 2020 US presidential election is coming to an end with the victory of Joe Biden announced by US media. How do you evaluate the impact of this result on Vietnam's securities market?

The result of the US election will bring about positive effects on Vietnam’s economy and securities market. Because the policies of Mr. Joe Biden as well as the Democratic Party tend to be flexible and peaceful with allies such as Germany and Canada while Donald Trump's policies are peaceful but disputable, leading to instability for the economy.

Meanwhile, the US-China trade war, though is continuing,will not be too tense because Joe Biden's policies will not be as strong and blunt as Donald Trump's. This will help reduce the negative effects from this trade war on other countries, including Vietnam.

I also expect Mr. Joe Biden will pay attention to Southeast Asian countries. Accordingly, it is likely to resume the CPTPP soon.

Looking back at the movements of the global securities market as well as Vietnam’s securities market in the past week, we have seen a positive response to the information from the US election result. When the information about the election result is officially announced, according to the media, investors will be more confident to implement disbursement, so the cash flow into the Vietnamese market will be stronger. In which, the securities is the easiest and most attractive investment channel today, so it is forecast that the capital flow into this channel will be significant.

With such bright prospects, which industries will have great growth potential?

In addition to the US election result, the securities market also received positive information from the US announcement of the Covid-19 vaccine with a high success rate. This opens up the prospect that the pandemic will be soon controlled, helping the global economy in general and Vietnam’s economy in particular recover to a normal state. Accordingly, the tourism, hotel, service and aviation industries will benefit from this recovery.

In addition, the real estate industry of industrial zones will continue to benefit in the long term thanks to the wave of production shifting of multinational corporations out of China.

It should be noted that Joe Biden's power will not mean the US-China trade war will end, but it will transit to a more flexible state. Because both the Democrats and the Republicans agree on tougher policies towards China.

Besides, during the Covid-19 pandemic, the global supply chain was interrupted. Therefore, multinational corporations are not willing to "put all their eggs in one basket" and find ways to reduce dependence on China. Therefore, the wave of production shifting out of China to other countries, including Vietnam, will go on in the future.

The garment industry also has many growth opportunities in the near future after a long interruption. The prospect of the Covid-19 pandemic along with the upcoming Christmas season is forecast to bring the garment enterprises a large number of orders.

In particular, the prospect that the US will resume the CPTPP also opens a bright future for the textile and garment industry.

Long process to develop legal framework for securities market

In addition to the above industries, banking, securities and civil real estate are also industries that will benefit when the economy resumes and social consumption grows again.

Thank you very much!