Discuss on the energy security

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The electricity sector needs to ensure the production of 265-278 billion kWh by 2020 and about 572-632 billion kWh by 2030. Photo: ST.

But the reality is that the energy demand for Vietnam's socio-economic development is increasing. If the State management agencies do not have more rational calculations and act timely to ensure energy security, that will make it extremely difficult in the coming time.

To risk power shortage in long-term

According to the Department of Electricity and Renewable Energy (Ministry of Industry and Trade): Crude oil, coal, gas, hydropower and non-commercial energy (energy used in daily life such as firewood, waste from agricultural production, garbage) are the sources of energy exploited in the country. In recent years, total energy production has been exploited increasingly. The volume of exploited commercial products did not have a significant increase in volume. However, with the high demand of primary energy for socio-economic development and energy security, Vietnam has become a net importer of energy since 2015.

In the story of energy security in general, ensuring the key requirements of production and electricity supply are the most concerning. The actual conditions of Vietnam’s power shortage are being considered with increasing ferocity.

Around this issue, Mr. Nguyen Van Vy - Vice Chairman of Vietnam Energy Association said that from now to 2020, Vietnam might not be too worried about power shortage, but in the period after 2020, the risk of electricity shortage would be quite clear. This was due to the fact that a series of projects were behind in progress. For example, in the north, Thermal Power Plant Thai Binh 2 owned by Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (PVN) was slow. In the south, a number of BOT projects are involved in negotiations…

It is forecasted that in the period up to 2030, the electricity demand will continue to grow at a high rate. The electricity sector will need to ensure the production of 265-278 billion kWh by 2020 and about 572-632 billion kWh by 2030. The growth rate will 10.3-11.3% per year for the period 2016-2020, and will be 8-8.5% per year for the period of 2021 – 2030.

Mr. Ngo Son Hai, Deputy General Director of EVN, said that oil-fired thermal power sources should be mobilized with the corresponding output of 4.4 billion kWh in 2019 and 5.2 billion kWh in 2020, to cover cases in which electric generators do not meet the operational reliability or are not provided with enough fuel (coal, gas) for electricity generation that would cause a shortage of electricity by 2020. In the period 2021-2023, if the electricity system does not meet the demand, so the possibility of power shortages could happen in the south. By 2026 - 2030, the supply of electricity in general would be assured when the progress of electric sources meets the expected power requirements.

The cause of power shortage, the EVN report stated: One of influential factors may be that the number of electricity generating sources which have already started building, and are to put into operation in the next 5 years, was very low compared to requirements in the adjusted Power Master Plan VII. According to the adjusted Power Plan VII, in the 5 years of 2018-2022, the total capacity of the planned power sources put into operation would be 34,864 MW, of which from thermal power would be 26,000 MW. In fact, only 7 coal-fired power plants /7,860MW have been started and are under construction. As such, over 18,000MW/26,000MW coal-fired power plants are expected to operate in the next five years but have not started construction yet. "Many power projects, especially thermal power projects in the south are potentially risky, and may continue to be delayed by the current assessment. At the same time, ensuring fuel sources for electricity generation is a potential risk, such as natural gas sources exploited in the country are down, but there is no alternative gas supply," Mr. Hai added.

Open road for renewable energy

In the current context, when exploiting traditional energy sources it is critical to meet the needs of socio-economic development while ensuring compliance with international commitments on sustainable development. Using new and renewable energy sources such as wind power, solar power is one of the solutions that many experts assess as feasible.

In fact, right from April 2017, the Prime Minister issued Decision No. 11/2017/QD-TTg on the mechanism of encouraging solar power, actually creating a dynamic thrust and explosion in investment in solar power. The reason is that the electricity price is very attractive, up to 9.35 Uscent/kWh (about 2,086 VND/kWh - electricity price adjusted by the exchange rate of VND/USD) and lasts up to 20 years. Evidence suggests that by 2015, the country had only 3.5 megawatts of solar power. As of early 2017, the amount of solar power was also relatively modest. However, according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade: From April 2017 to September 2018, 121 projects were approved for the additional plan with a total capacity of over 9.2 thousand MW; 211 projects have not been approved for the additional plan with the total capacity of 16.8 thousand MW. The projects were concentrated in the central and the south regions - where there is great potential for solar power, with radiation of 4.2-4.8 kWh / m2 / day. As such, the total number of projects lined up for deployment was 332 with a total capacity of over 26.2 thousand MW.

With wind power, in early September, 2018, the Prime Minister promulgated Decision No. 39/2018/QD-TTg amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decision No. 37/2011/QD-TTg dated 29th June 2011, on the mechanism to support the development of wind power projects in Vietnam. In particular, the point of interest was still the issue of electricity prices. Specifically, for inland wind power projects, the electricity purchase price at the point of delivery is 1,928 VND/kWh (excluding Value Added Tax, equivalent to 8.5 Uscents/kWh).

Around the issue of renewable energy development, Mr. Vy emphasized: "If we focus investment on the development of renewable energy projects, including wind power and solar power, in the period after 2020, Vietnam will not be worried about power shortage. Vietnam should have a mechanism to actually promote the development of renewable energy projects. If there is a special mechanism which is approved soon, it will be estimated to take just one year from setting up the power project to putting into operation.”

Constant concern about waste pollution from coal-fired power VCN- Coal-fired power plants are still an important and optimal solution of the current situation in order ...

According to Mr. Hai, in order to ensure energy security in the coming time, the solution is to ensure good coordination of two solutions, including controlling the demand for additional load and ensuring the supply of electricity. With additional load control, there is a need to enhance the use of safe, economical and efficient electricity, and electricity demand management (DSM), with priority given to the south; there is a mechanism by the State to speed up the additional load controlling program. In addition, it is necessary to encourage the development of scattered solar power projects and solar power projects in the feasible areas for connection, especially support and encourage customers to use electricity from renewable energy (living, industrial parks, trade and services), invest in the development of solar roof projects, especially in the south…