Exports in the first half of the year: Progress smoothly, be optimistic to fulfill target

Accomplishments

According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), the export turnover in the first five months of this year was estimated at $US 93.09 billion, increasing by 15.8% compared to the same period last year. In which, the domestic economic sector gained $US 26.43 billion, increasing by 17.8%; the foreign investment (including crude oil) reached $US 66.66 billion, rising by 15%, accounting for 71.6% of total export turnover (down by 0.5 percentage point compared to the same period in 2017).

There are not many changes compared to the past few years, and the latest first quarter of this year up to the end of May, the main groups contribute to create a "picture" with many bright colors including familiar names such as: phones and components; electronics, computers and components; textile; footwear, wood and wood products... All export value of these key commodities increased significantly compared to the same period last year.

In terms of exports in the first 5 months of the year, the remarkable point is that the agricultural and aquatic products also showed positive growth, positively contributing to the growth of commodity export in general. Typically include: seafood exports, $US 3.1 billion, up 11.1%; vegetables and fruits reached $US 1.7 billion, up 19.6%; rice reached $US 1.6 billion, up 51.1%...

On the overall balance of trade for the first four months of the year, Vietnam constantly enjoyed an export surplus. Although in May it is estimated the trade deficit touched $US 500 million, in the first five months Vietnam still surpassed $US 3.39 billion. Notably, the export growth in the first 5 months of this year is not only high compared to the general trend, but also high compared to other countries in the region and compared with the targets set by the National Assembly. The high export turnover in the context of trade surplus is more positive.

According to Assoc. Prof. Pham Tat Thang, Senior Expert, Trade Research Institute (Ministry of Industry and Trade), with the last trade surplus results, especially in the first months of the year, they can be considered as an accomplishment for Vietnam. Exports in recent years have been seen as a highlight of the economy, making significant contributions to economic growth. Notably, the exports have been expanded in the markets as far as the United States, the EU, Japan... The difference in export turnover between traditional markets and new markets is not too large. This will help Vietnam to not be too dependent on an area. In addition, the structure of export goods has also changed positively with items with high added value, such as computers, telephones...

"Many commodities were previously thought not to have high export growth, especially agricultural products, which now appear more and more," expert Pham Tat Thang said.

Export growth is expected to increase by over 20%

Expert Pham Tat Thang predicted that this year exports could grow by more than 20% compared to the previous year, but it also demands great efforts to achieve.

Some expert analyze, Vietnam is a country pursuing a strategic export orientation, which sees export as one of the main drivers of economic growth. In 2018, the GDP target is set at 6.7%. With the high export growth at the beginning of the year, the first 5 months exceeded the export surplus by over $US 3 billion, and this year it is believed that exports will contribute significantly to help Vietnam achieve the above growth number.

Overall, the export prospects in 2018 are quite positive, but when "dissecting", Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham Tat Thang said that Vietnam’s export situation still has many disadvantages to overcome. Typically, though getting the export surplus to the difficult markets such as the United States and Japan..., Vietnam has the trade deficit in the near or low-level development markets. In addition, the export surplus is mainly in the FDI enterprises, while enterprises with 100% domestic capital are in trade deficit. This shows that domestic enterprises are weak. “In terms of export structure, many typical export items are agricultural products, textiles, footwear... though export value is high, the value added is not large. In particular, agricultural products are still mainly exported in raw form rather than with depth of processing products”, said Dr. Pham Tat Thang.

To maintain the growth momentum as well as to ensure sustainable surplus, Dr. Pham Tat Thang said that in the coming time, the State should have policies to actively and effectively support small and medium enterprises and start-up enterprises, for creating high value-added export goods. In addition, Vietnam should take full advantage of free trade agreements (FTA) to call for investment, import advanced technology into production, improve product quality...

Economist Lê Đăng Doanh: Vietnam should have appropriate policies to face with market movements

In fact, Vietnam's export surplus is mainly contributed by foreign invested enterprises. It is worth noting that, although the FDI enterprises are expanding trade surplus, the added value created, real benefits that the Vietnamese economy is entitled to is not high. In the coming time, domestic enterprises need to make more efforts to increase value added, increase efficiency in export, although this is not simple.

It is forecasted that in the coming time, the export of Samsung mobile phones as well as the export of agricultural and forest products will continue to develop well. However, the world market is experiencing significant fluctuations. Typically, the risk of pressure from the US market with aluminum, steel and seafood Vietnam increased. Vietnam should strive to find new markets and adopt appropriate policies for world market fluctuations. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade: Efforts to make the best use of export opportunities from FTA In the coming time, the industry and trade sector will continue to strongly propagandize, inform and raise the awareness of FTAs in the business community in order to make the best use of these advantages while at the same time, maintaining and raising high quality consultation in the negotiation process to sign/modify and upgrade FTAs. In addition, the solution is to promote the development of production, increase investment in developing supporting industries, step by step take the initiative in supplying raw materials for export, creating export goods sources in line with regulations on the origin of goods to take advantage of the opportunities for tariff preferences and market openings provided by FTAs; to continue reviewing and assessing the impacts of the signing and implementation of FTAs in each sector in order to adjust the sector development strategy, promptly handle and inform the business community about the hot issues being raised in the implementation of commitments... For agricultural and fishery products alone, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will chair and coordinate with the MARD and related agencies to continue exchanging with the US to resolve disputes, protect shrimp and catfish interests of Vietnam in the US market that is subject to technical barriers and trade remedies; study links with Ecuador, India in the fight for this issue... By Duc Quang