Exports will still reach target if pandemic is controlled

	Trade ministry proposes resuming rice exports
	Agro-forestry-aquatic exports enjoy 50% trade surplus in Q1
	Fruit, vegetable exports hit US$831 million in first quarter

Exports of goods in the first quarter of 2020 only reached US$59.08 billion, up 0.5% over the same period last year. What difficulties will Vietnam's export of goods face in the future, especially when the Covid-19 pandemic continues to rage in the second quarter?

The typical difficulty in the future is a demand reduction of some Vietnamese major export markets such as the US and EU. These markets will reduce immediate demand in the second quarter due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In addition, the most mentioned difficulty is the story of broken raw materials. Raw materials for many industries of Vietnam such as textiles and footwear are mainly imported from some markets such as China and South Korea. As these markets are affected by Covid-19 epidemic, the source of input materials reserves by the end of March or by the end of April.

One of the more worrying issues is how Vietnam's export-producing facilities, like textiles, footwear and electronics can keep workers in the current difficult period to have available workers for when Covid- 19 passes.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global economic activity is enormous. According to assessments, the second quarter will be an extremely difficult time for Vietnam's export activities because major markets will be seriously affected. Both supply-demand and distribution systems were harmed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Besides difficulties and challenges, which opportunities are brought to Vietnam's export of goods in the future?

Besides difficulties, in a longer perspective when the Covid-19 pandemic is gradually under better control, Vietnam's exports also have favourable factors.

Those are key export items of Vietnam such as rice and fresh vegetables which the world still need, even if the Covid-19 pandemic is reduced, the demand will be more. If Vietnam can process products such as vegetables and seafood into frozen and canned products, it will better meet the world's demand after the pandemic season. Especially with “tra’ fish and “basa” fish products, Vietnam has many advantages. If Vietnam is removed the "yellow card" with export seafood by the European Union in the future, it will be a good factor to help boost exports.

In addition, with other commodities like pork, although Vietnam is currently lacking, prices are high, if soon we organise repopulation and good production, this product could boost exports.

While all countries are trying to combat the Covid-19 pandemic, causing disruption of trade, seriously affecting Vietnam's goods import and export, China has emerged as a country that has quite good control over the pandemic. Many people said that in the future, this market should pay special attention to boosting exports to compensate for the decline from other markets such as the US and EU, especially for agricultural, forestry and aquatic products. What is your opinion on this issue?

That is absolutely right. China has initially been able to control the pandemic and is a close market for Vietnam. Therefore, in the future, it is necessary to pay attention to boosting exports to China, especially with food and food products and fresh vegetables. It can be said that this is a golden period for Vietnam to promote exports to China.

However, exporting to this billion-people market also needs attention as when the market is in great demand, there will be a problem of "competing" for unofficial exports. This is easy to create a bad image, causing a blockage at the border, which necessitates precautions. Large and powerful enterprises need to work to be able to export goods according to official channels.

It is expected that by July 2020, the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) will take effect. Many assessments see that Covid-19 could be gradually controlled in the EU, promoting the good utilisation of opportunities from EVFTA would be “rescue” to help Vietnam export and import recover, and have a chance to ensure growth target of 7-8% this year. What do you think about this?

I think if the EU can control the Covid-19 pandemic in the second quarter to restore the production activities by the third and fourth quarter, the EVFTA will be the route and wide door to bring goods to the EU market. The EU market needs to import goods such as textiles, footwear, furniture, especially phones and electronic components. These are all items with major export turnover for Vietnam.

The target of export growth in 2020 is 7-8% compared to 2019. At present, this goal should also be recalculated. However, in my opinion, if the Covid-19 pandemic is controlled in the second quarter, even if the export of the second quarter was "dog-tired", Vietnam could make good use of the EVFTA agreement, it could still compensate for the previous losses, "reach the target" as the goal.

Recognising in the current context, would you like to tell us which quick and practical solutions should be deployed by State management agencies and the whole business community to best deal with the difficult situation in the pandemic, to gradually help export goods overcome difficulties?

At present, deploying assistance is needed. Recently, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc issued an urgent directive to remove difficulties in production and business, as well as ensure social security to respond to Covid-19 epidemic with seven key solutions.

In my opinion, one of the important solutions is to find ways to reduce difficulties for enterprises with bailout packages. This is to help enterprises hold out in the second quarter and after that, they can operate in the third quarter. When they re-operate, they only think of factors such as reducing interest rates of loans. In addition, I think that ministries such as MARD and Ministry of Industry and Trade need rescue packages for each key export item in each market. This must promote further.

In the enterprise perspective, the key is to be "dogged". In spite of the current difficulties, enterprises must also find ways to survive, silently preserve their ability to wait until the disease is over, there is an opportunity to immediately "strike" to compensate for the damage.