GDP growth will need to be 6.14% in the third quarter

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The report of CIEM said that the second quarter has seen the first transfer in the new government machinery. The new Cabinet has introduced a series of messages with ideas to create more predictibality in the policy environment, encourage and foster enterpreneuship and promote economic growth.

These changes “hit” the expectations of the business community and residents. This is the basis for expectations about the possibility of re-establishing economic growth and more sustainability in the second half of 2016 and the coming years

However, given the panorama of Vietnam's economy, the report said that economic growth has not regained the rebound and the achievement of the growth goal of 6.7% would be unfeasible in 2016.

The enterprise sector had little change, when the number of newly-established enterprises has increased in the second quarter and the first 6 months 16.6% and 20%, respectively (mainly due to the positive impact of the Enterprise Law, the Investment Law and initial benefits of the Government performance solutions, confident for Vietnam’s economic growth prospects and opportunities of new-generation FTAs), however, according to CIEM, the enterprise sector has still had difficulty when the number of dissolved enterprises in this quarter increased 20.7% against the same period of 2015.

For the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in the second quarter, it has also risen so rapidly as in the first quarter and inflation for the first 6 months has increased due to factors of push expenses. “Price executive work will still have some risks in the second half of 2016 due to the impact from the increased price of commodities and services controlled by the Government, the small reduction of interest rate and impact from changes of foreign capital flows” PhD. Nguyen Dinh Cung – Director of CIEM said.

The report also showed that the export turnover reached about $43.4 billion US in the second quarter, overall the first 6 months of the year reached $82.1 billion US, an increase of 5.7%, this rate was also far from the original goal for the whole year. Export growth was mainly based on the FDI sector. Import in the second quarter reached $43 billion US, up 2.2%, of which, only the FDI sector reached $24.6 billion US.

“The result of the forecast showed that economic growth in the third quarter could reach 6.14%. The export growth forecast to be at 6.8%, the trade deficit at $ 0.4 billion US at the same time. The increase of consumer prices in the third quarter is around 1.31%” said Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung.

During general discussion at the workshop it was widely appreciated that the new government has quickly put its hand to address economic - social development, associated with promoting economic fundamental reforms. It is not difficult to identify the policy movements. The unexpected economic - social results in the second quarter have not obscured the Government efforts.

In fact, the second quarter witnessed significant difficulties and changes, along with far-reaching global and regional economic impacts. The inherent limitations of the Vietnamese growth pattern also needs time to solve. The results of Vietnam's economic growth and export growth in itself, have remained relatively well compared with many countries in the region.

Looking at the last months of 2016, the experts stressed that the Government should not be aimed at promoting economic growth at any cost that should remain consistent with the priorities set out in microeconomic reform, hold local maintenance and operating consolidated balance macroeconomic policy.

Speaking at the seminar, TS. Luu Bich Ho said that the State needs to properly identify the situation to make the appropriate adjustments. According to economic experts like Luu Bich Ho, Viet Nam should consider adjusting the growth objectives, while focusing on economic reforms, starting with institutional reform with the goal of creating a good growth platform.

That is the foundation of growth by improving productivity and encouraging the private sector. Currently, we are focused on accelerating growth of capital, this is unstable and if the growth of capital is implemented, a reasonable increase will be needed not to destabilize, PhD.Ho recommended.