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China’s Pork imports are forecasted to increase nearly 2 million tons in 2019. Photo: Internet.

According to the Export-Import Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade),sincethe beginning of November 2019, the price of lean pork delivered in December 2019 in Chicago (USA) fluctuated sharply. After rising to 67.1 UScent/lb on November 5, the price has fallen.

On November 19, 2019, the lean pork price in Chicago delivered in December fluctuated at 62.8 UScent/lb, down 4.9% compared to the end of October, but up 4.4% compared to 2018.

The pork price decreased due to uncertain demand for importing meat from China. China is facing a serious shortage of pork due to African Swine Fever (ASF). Currently, the US’s purchase of pork from China has sharply decreased compared to some traders' expectations.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), with the spread of disease to neighboring countries, especially Vietnam, Laos, Mongolia and Cambodia, global pork production is expected to decline 8.5 percent in 2019to 110.5 million tons of live pig.

The world trade in meat and meat products is forecast to reach 36 million tons in 2019, up 6.7 percent compared to 2018, due to a surge in China’s pork imports and the domestic supply decreased due toASF.

China's pork imports are forecast to increase by nearly 2 million tons in 2019, an increase of 35% compared to 2018, with increases in imports ofall pork products. In contrast, some countries expect to reduce pork imports, including the United States and Angola.

Currently, China is seeking alternative meat supplies for the millions of pigs that died due to African swine fever, which has increased the price, revenue and profits for European and South American meat packers and reshaped global markets for pork, chicken and beef.

Notably, the EU–the second largest pork producer in the world followed by China, is sharply increasing pork exports to China although it can only offset a small part of the total decline in pork supply in this country due to ASF.

In addition, Argentina and Brazil are approving a series of new meat export plans to meet the demand of beef, chicken and pork in China.

In contrast, the US meat producers are facing disadvantages due to China's import tax policy.

According to FAO, ASF will reduce pork production in China by at least 20% in 2020, a double reduction compared to the prediction by FAO six months ago.

The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) predicts that African swine fever will continue spreading throughout Asia and damage the region's animal husbandry and no country can resist the spread of this virus.

In the Vietnam market, the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that from June 2019, the price of pork has been on an upward trend, the strongest increase since the end of October (up about 25-30 percent compared to September) and currently itis quite high.

The cause of the price increase is due to the impact of ASFin Vietnam from the beginning of 2019 and by the end of June, it has spread nationwide.

The number of pigs infected and destroyed is large, and the inability to re-colonizein epidemic areas because ASFin Vietnam has not been controlled yet and there is no vaccine against the disease. In addition, there is an imbalance between supply and demand in some localities, affecting the market.

According to the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment), the country's pig herds in October decreased by 20% compared to 2018 due to the impact of ASF. The reduced supply is the main factor for the increase in the price of live pig.