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Diesel electricity is the most expensive, which is used only for extreme needs. Photo: N. Thanh

Sufficient electricity for 2020

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the electricity supply and operation of the national power system in 2019 was stable, ensuring sufficient electricity for social-economic development as well as people’s essential needs. Especially, it did not need to be regulated and reducednationwide.

Total produced and imported electricity forthe national grid in 2019 was estimated at 239,739 billion kWh, an increase of 8.93 percent compared to 2018.

Speaking at apress conference announcing the inspection results of electricity production costs in 2018 of Vietnam Electricity (EVN) and a plan supplying electricity and operating the national electricity system in 2020, held by the Ministry of Industry and Trade on December 8, Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Director of Electricity Regulatory Authority said: “Under the approved plan, the electricity supply for production and people’s living shall be ensured.”

However, the Ministry of Industry and Trade assessed that there would be disadvantages and difficulties for electricity supply in 2020. Ofwhich, the main reason is unfavorable hydrological status and some slow-moving power projects.

Particularly, in 2019, there were be almost no floods on many river systems in the north and north central regions, the water flow tohydroelectricreservoirs was lower than the average of previous years, leading to the water level of many hydroelectric reservoirs at the end of 2019 beingmuch lower than the normal water level.

Typically, reservoirs in Da River basin could not accumulate water to the normal level at the end of 2019 (specifically, Son La and HoaBinh hydroelectric reservoirs were expected to be 10-20m lower than the normal level). Some large hydroelectric reservoirs in the central and south regions such as Ban Ve, CuaDat, A Vuong and Dai Ninh hadwater levels7-29m lower than normal water levels at the end of 2019.

According to calculations, the total hydropower output in hydroelectric reservoirs in early 2020 will be lower than the normal level of 4.55 billion kWh. In addition, hydroelectric reservoirs are also required to provide water for people’s living and agricultural production, which will be strengthened in many localities.

In January to February in 2020, the hydroelectric reservoirs on the Red river system will have to discharge over 4 billion cubic meters of water to serve the winter-spring crops 2019-2020 of the Northern Delta. This will also directly affect the electricity supply for the peak months of the dry season in 2020.

Mobilizing nearly 3.4 billion kWh of diesel electricity

Nguyen Anh Tuan added that in 2019, the total amount of high-cost diesel electricity was about 1.7 billion kWh, lower than the predicted estimate of 2.57 billion kWh.

In 2020, to ensure sufficient electricity for socio-economic development, it is expected to mobilize up to 3,397 billion kWh of high-cost diesel electricity.

In particular, in the dry season 2020 (mainly in April and May), it is expected to mobilize about 3,153 billion kWh of diesel electricity due to unfavorable hydrological status and the need of operating electricity generation of large hydropower plants (HoaBinh, Tuyen Quang and Thac Ba) in January and February 2020 will not ensure the ability to mobilize these plants in peak months of the dry season.

“The amount of electricity mobilized from the diesel electricity will increase if there are bad situations such as the amount of water flow to the hydroelectric reservoirs continues to be lower than the rate of 65 percent, the load increases dramatically or there are long-term problems in coal-fired power plants and gas turbines,”said the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

“The Ministry of Industry and Trade officially estimates that the diesel electricity to be mobilized would be nearly 3.4 billion kWh. This amount is calculated based on all factors. However, if the weather is hot in 2020, the load spikes or the water flow to hydroelectric reservoir is less than reality, the demand for diesel electricity mobilization may be higher. In case of really extreme cases, diesel electricity must be mobilized. Cheap electricity sources will be prioritized,”Tuan said.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong affirmed that, according to the Ministry's calculations, the ability to meet electricity demand for 2020 is basically ensured. However, a large power shortage could happen in 2021 to 2025 with an estimated shortage of about 7-8 billion kWh per year if power plants which are behind schedule, still continue to be slow and cannot be completed and the electricity shifting practice is not effective.

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"When we mobilize a lot of diesel output, EVN's financial situation will certainly be more difficult because 1 kWh of diesel electricity is much more expensive than coal electricity and even much more expensive than hydroelectricity. However, adjustment of electricity prices is not only based on the increase or decrease in electricity prices, but we have to rely heavily on other factors,"Deputy Minister Hoang Quoc Vuong said.