Prices of essential goods will slightly increase on Tet holiday

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Economic expert Vu Vinh Phu

There are only two months left until Lunar New Year 2020. Right now, the market price has started to have a noticeable movement. Could you provide some comments on prices of goods for theTet holiday this year, please?

This year as well as every year, goods will still be plentiful. However, the market is currently in a complexsituation with fake goods, poor quality goods and those withoutorigin. In addition, unsanitary goods and products are being sold while management is still limited.

In general, commodity prices during the Tet holiday will increase slightly, focusing on some essential commodities such as: meat, poultry, fresh seafood and vegetables. Prices of this group will start strongerfluctuations from December 23 to the Lunar New Year. However, this is a problem that happens every year because demand increases forthe Tet holiday. Big cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have support programs to keep their prices stable, but I think that during the Tet holiday, prices may increase moderately.

The pork price is a problem because Tet approaches but supply is still scarce. What do you think about this issue?

The price of pork in the country has increased continuously since June 2019. The reason is the shortage of supply, with the number of pigs destroyed in 11 months at5.8 million, equal to 8 percent of the total number of pigs present in the year. The re-herds in areas where the epidemic over 30 days is still lasting, some places still have epidemics and recurrence, the number of pigs to be destroyed continues.

Therefore, although the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has proposed increasing the number of cattle and poultry to make up for the shortage, pork is the common food in meals (accounting for 70 percent of meat consumption). As aresult, it is difficult to offset the pork shortage in the comingmonths.

At present, the main source of pigs for slaughterhouses is large corporations such as CP Vietnam Livestock Joint Stock Company, Dabaco Group Joint Stock Company. Pigs in small pigsties are not available in these companies, some families have a "hoarding" mentality and wait for a better price to sell. According to the evaluation of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, although the supply is not insufficient, pork prices are increasing steadily. The main reason is due to middlemen and intermediaries increasing prices before going to retail.

Recently, Ho Chi Minh City has considered setting up a pork trading floor to bring pork products straight from the farm to the retail stage in markets and supermarkets without letting intermediaries take advantage of price increases. The Government also asked the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and localities throughout the country to intensify market control checks, combat speculation, hoarding goods, and unreasonably push prices up pork market and influence consumer rights.

In order to stabilize the market prices in the last months of the year and the beginning of the New Year, what do the authorities need to do?

In my opinion, it is necessary to monitor the source of pork as well as other essential foods on the basis of supply and demand relationships to reduce price spikes. Limiting the lowest level of goods through many intermediaries and high discounts at retail stages leads to unreasonable price rises. After piloting the establishment of a pork trading floor in the South, if it is effective, it will be replicated nationwide.

In addition, attention should also be paid to the operation of the national distribution system, including markets, supermarkets, grocery stores, and convenience stores. Ensure a smooth, coordinated operation voluntarily between production and distribution in order to coordinate essential goods for year-end procurement or tend to increase prices to around 20 – 30percent compared to normal days. Retail businesses need to actively find other food sources including fresh and processed foods to supplement the goods fund to serve the people.

In particular, authorities have to master the total national herd, closely monitor the re-herd, especially in households to ensure the supply of pork before during and after Tet. Continue to develop livestock, poultry and aquatic animals to make up for the shortages of pork in recent months. At the same time, it is allowed to import pork, chicken and beef from other countries into the domestic market accompanied by a focus on the management of imported goods to protect the interests of domestic consumers.

In addition, deep processing of pork-based products, such as sausages, may be required to freeze the pigs to cover the shortage.

From now until the year 2020, there are two months left, time is running out, therefore, under the direction of the Government, the advice of the concerned ministries and branches, the leadership of the localities and the efforts of domestic business organizations and import-export enterprises, the ability of us to overcome this difficult period in the coming months, contributing to the CPI below 4 percent in the year 2019 that the National Assembly and the Government have set.