US-China trade war breaks out: whether exports and imports lose or not

Forecasting, manufacturing, exporting steel is one of the sectors that will be affected if the US-China trade war really booms. Picture: N.anh.

Vietnam suffers with Chinese goods

According to economic expert Dinh Tuan Minh, the trade war between the United States and China will indirectly affect the Vietnamese market. Specifically, when Chinese exports to the United States are taxed in order to reduce dependence by the United States, and for maintaining their own domestic productivity, China might then have dumping policies, pushing goods to neighboring countries, of which Vietnam is one. This creates a great pressure for domestic companies.

Similar to this viewpoint, answering the reporter of the Customs Newspaper, Mr. Pham Tat Thang, a senior researcher (Trade Research Institute, Ministry of Industry and Trade), said that when the US-China trade war brakes out, Chinese goods will find it difficult to penetrate the US market. These goods are still produced daily, they will look for other markets for consumption, including the Vietnamese market. Of course, in this case, Vietnamese enterprises will face greater pressure and more difficulties. If Vietnamese enterprises are not able to compete with Chinese goods, businesses will have to shrink production, workers will lose their jobs ....

"In terms of export, when the trade war broke out, many of the items previously produced for export to the US market China can now produce to serve consumption in the domestic market, leading to import reduction demand, meanwhile Vietnam has many export items to China. If this happens, Vietnamese goods may be damaged," Thang said.

In addition, according to some experts, if the US-China trade war lasts with difficulty for Chinese exports to the United States, in the long term the country won’t develop, and many Chinese industries will have to narrow the scale of production, to sell factories and technology cheaply ... At that time, countries, including Vietnam will have China pushing into these countries. In addition, the volatility of US-China trade will have a strong impact on the exchange rate between the renminbi and the dollar. Vietnamese currency is heavily dependent on the exchange rate of these two currencies, so many factors will be affected.

Adding to the point of view of the US-China trade war, Dr. Said Toan Thang, head of the World Economic Forum, the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF), the Ministry of Planning and Investment, said: "If trade conflicts increase, protectionism of other markets will also increase. That is a worrying issue because protectionism is often a spill-over.

The coming hope

In addition to concerns about the negative impact of the US-China trade war on the Vietnamese economy in general, import-export in particular, the experts said that the war between the two countries will bring hope to Vietnam.

As said by Toan Thang Thang, the US-China trade dispute "escalating" will open the door to Vietnam so that Vietnam has the opportunity to increase export to the United States. Regarding this issue, Pham Tat Thang further analyzes: Restricting or even closing down on Chinese goods, demand in the United States remains. The key problem is that Vietnam has to do something to get the goods, replacing part of that shortage. To do so, Vietnamese goods must first be subject to lower tariffs than Chinese ones and at the same time the goods must be of good quality.

Some other experts point out: The context of the trade war between the two powers exploded, in terms of certain aspects, and this also gives opportunities for Vietnam. It is under pressure from the two market. If Vietnam strives more, Vietnam will thoroughly take advantage of opportunities from FTAs, such as FTA Vietnam - Eurasia Economic Union, FTA Vietnam-EU, Vietnam-Japan FTA ..or the Comprehensive Partnership and Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP) will have a positive impact on export. It can even be expected to help Vietnam to depend less on the United States and China. In the immediate future, in order to be more active in the course of the US-China trade war, Vietnam needs to quickly issue risks that can happen, accessing impacts on each commodity sector to prepare to suitably face the challenges.

Referring to the changes of the world commerce market in general, Nguyen Anh Duong, Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Policy Department, Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), said that: At the national level, the economy also needs to be discussed with partners regularly, especially small export-oriented economies like Vietnam that are also based on export. To share and cooperate together, getting more experience. It is even possible to proceed to develop a joint response plan in order to cope with instabilities in the global finance and trading markets.