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On August 19, 2021, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired an online meeting of the Government Standing Committee with Ho Chi Minh City and the provinces of Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Long An on Covid-19 prevention and control. Photo: VNA

"Sweet fruit" from dual goals

It is not difficult to recognize the efforts of the Government for the 2021-2026 period and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, with the focus on implementing "dual goals", and many instructions to handle the shortcomings of the economy.

Many pandemic prevention and control solutions have been promulgated and implemented synchronously and drastically with the primary goal of taking care of and protecting people’s health and lives.

The Government also tries its best to ensure production and business activities, not to disrupt the supply chain, and to create confidence in the business community.

According to a report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, in the first seven months of the year, the macro-economy was basically stable, inflation was controlled, the average consumer price index (CPI) in seven months increased by 1.64% compared to the previous year. In the same period of 2020, major balances of the economy were ensured, state budget revenue reached 68% of the yearly estimate, an increase of 15.6%.

Money and foreign exchange markets were relatively stable, deposit and lending interest rates continued to decline, while credit growth recovered positively. Financial services, cashless payments were promoted. Digital transformation and application of information technology, especially in service of pandemic prevention and control, have been boosted.

The index of industrial production (IIP) in seven months increased by 7.9%, of which the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 9.9%. Agricultural production is basically favorable; food security is guaranteed. Total import-export turnover in seven months reached over US$373 billion, up by 30.2%, export reached over US$185 billion, up by 25.5%.

Foreign investment attraction in seven months reached US$16.72 billion; realized FDI capital reached US$10.5 billion, up by 3.8%.

However, in reality, disease control and economic recovery are still huge challenges for the Government.

The 4th wave of Covid-19 continues to develop complicatedly, threatening health, life and seriously affecting the socio-economic situation of the country. Inflation has the potential to increase; disbursement of public investment capital has not met the requirements; there have been breaks in some supply chains; exports tend to slow down; and the trade deficit is likely to continue.

Some agricultural products face difficulties in sales, especially in areas with outbreaks. Jobs and livelihoods of many people have been greatly affected, especially in pandemic-hit areas.

In that context, the economic growth target of 6% to 6.5% in 2021 is extremely challenging. The Government also said that there are many risks, difficulties and challenges. But with the determination to realize the "dual goals", prioritizing the effective prevention and control of the Covid-19 pandemic to boost production and business, the Government has not changed the set target.

Many economic experts have said that, along with the flexible implementation of "dual goals", Vietnam's economy has many optimistic signals, so that it can return to a good growth trajectory if it can control the pandemic. The Government is on the right track in defining and simultaneously implementing a vaccine strategy as well as key economic policies.

Flexibility in implementation

Regarding this issue, economic expert, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Vu Sy Cuong said, on the basis of pandemic prevention and safety, we still have to find ways to maintain production and business activities as normal as possible, especially in industrial parks.

The main spirit at this time is that localities and businesses still have to actively overcome difficulties. Therefore, the Government's direction to both fight the pandemic and maintain economic activities is in the right direction. The "dual goals" will be implemented flexibly in the direction of both disease prevention and control, protection of people's health, recovery and socio-economic development in the new normal state.

According to Mr. Dau Anh Tuan, Head of the Legal Department, Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), in order to recover the economy, striving to achieve the highest growth this year, the top priority is to continue to take drastic measures to prevent the pandemic and persevere in the implementation of "dual goals".

Accordingly, Vietnam will be an attractive destination for investment flows when it has joined a series of trade agreements. The pandemic has also made international investors realize that it is not advisable to focus on one country and Vietnam can receive this transferred capital. Besides, the pandemic also promotes the digital transformation of Vietnam.

However, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bui Quang Tuan, Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics, said that in the context of increasing inflationary pressure, the economy has changed from a state of trade surplus to trade deficit, Vietnam needs to continue pursuing the goal of macroeconomic stability.

Therefore, instead of "dual goals", in the next period, Vietnam must consider pursuing "triple goals" including fighting the Covid-19 pandemic, promoting growth and stabilizing the macro-economy.

Regarding the growth prospects in the last months of the year, Director of the CIEM's Department for General Economic Studies Nguyen Anh Duong said that, although the economic context in the first months of the year was not favorable compared to the previous year, the growth outlook for the whole of 2021 is still maintained thanks to positive changes in the management and implementation of the "dual goals".

Also according to Nguyen Anh Duong, learning from the previous waves of the pandemic, the Government's approach to administration during the 4th wave has had flexibility to both prevent the Covid-19 pandemic and create conditions to promote production and business.

However, although the recovery momentum is present, the realization of the target of GDP growth for the whole year at 6.5% is still a challenge.

“The level of independence and autonomy of the economy in the new context needs to be changed and improved. At this stage, it is necessary to avoid thinking about the economy's independence and self-reliance in the direction of only defense, but to proactively cope with economic shocks, not avoid shocks,” said Mr. Duong.