Dr. Cao Viet Sinh, former Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment: Shaping the national development space

Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment: The real economy situation exposed via positive growth

Dr. Cao Viet Sinh

How do you evaluate the draft National Master Plan for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050?

This is the first time our country has developed a national master plan to 2030 and a vision to 2050, a great effort of the Ministry of Planning and Investment in coordination with relevant ministries, branches and agencies, research institutes, as well as scientists from central to local level.

The content of the draft National Master Plan has basically met the requirements. The planning method has ensured the approach from potential advantages, from the overall balance, with inter-sectoral, inter-regional, multi-stakeholder participation, market principles, and enhanced resilience of the economy and taking into account international integration trends.

The dossier for making and collecting comments on the national master plan in the basic report is complete in accordance with the provisions of the Law on Planning. The national master plan has been consulted by ministries and branches at the central level, consulted with the Vietnam Fatherland Front Committee and basically absorbed and explained by the Drafting Board for National Master Plan.

The structure of the national master plan report has fully demonstrated the required content and tasks that need to be included in a master plan. The data used for analysis and evaluation in the national master plan report are relatively complete, detailed, and updated. The documents cited and cited are quite abundant, including foreign experiences in the formulation of the National Master Plan as a basis for proposing development directions and implementation solutions in the regulatory plan period.

I agree with the development and spatial organization of the country's development space stated in the draft Master Plan. However, in my opinion, it is necessary to adjust some targets in the draft to achieve the goal of being a high-income country by 2045 as the vision of the XIII Party Congress set out.

How do we need to adjust specific targets, sir?

In my opinion, it is necessary to adjust some indicators such as the average GDP growth rate of 7%/year in the 2021-2030 period, in which the Southeast region and the Red River Delta will increase by 8-8.5% (instead of the Red River Delta increased by 7.5-8%).

In the 2011-2020 period, the Red River Delta region developed quite well, with a high growth rate, reaching 7.21%/year, much higher than the Southeast region (5.39%/year), which can bring the growth of the Red River Delta region higher than the draft, maybe 8-8.5%/year like the Southeast region.

In the Southeast region, in the 2011-2020 period, achieved low results due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and reduced oil and gas exploitation, through the summary of the Politburo's Resolutions on socio-economic development in the Southeast region.

The ministry shows that localities have a very high level of striving for the next 10 years such as Binh Duong in the 2021-2030 period is expected to increase by 8.3%; Ba Ria - Vung Tau increased by 7.7%; Dong Nai increased by 8-9%; Ho Chi Minh City grew by 8%.

Regarding GDP growth per person to 2030, in fact over the past 30 years (1990-2020), the world's high-income threshold increased 1.65 times, from US$7,689 in 1990 to US$12,536 in 2020.

In the next 30 years (in 2050), the world's high-income threshold will increase as in the previous 30 years, increasing by about 1.7 times, the world's high-income threshold in 2050 will be US$21,300 (If the world increases rapidly, the high-income threshold will be around US$23,000 - 25,000).

Therefore, by 2030, GDP per capita at current prices will reach about US$7,500, of which the Southeast region will reach about US$14,500, the Red River Delta region will reach about US$13,400 (the Southeast region will increase by US$500, and the region will increase by US$500, the Red River Delta region will increase by US$500, the Southeast region will increase by US$500. The Red River Delta increased by US$400 to match the exchange rate between regions).

Re-planning the national development space, building a national infrastructure framework or growth poles, economic corridors, etc., the ultimate goal is to realize the country's aspirations.

By 2030, it will be a high-middle-income developing country and by 2050 it will become a developed, high-income country. With the above growth plan in the period 2031-2050, our country's GDP per capita (US$27,000-32,000) will enter the group of high-income countries by 2045 as the vision of the XIII Party Congress has set out.

If on the contrary, choosing a lower growth target for the period 2031-2050 will be very difficult to achieve the set target. Therefore, the GDP growth plan for the period 2031-2050 from 6.5% to 7.5% is appropriate.

Do you think this plan is appropriate?

The investment in relatively modern and synchronous infrastructure in the 2021-2030 period will create a good foundation for growth in the following period, especially in 2031-2040, which can grow by 7-8%, and in 2041-2050 can continue to grow 6-7%.

The draft report on the National Master Plan proposes that two economic corridors along the North-South axis and eight East-West economic corridors are appropriate.

However, from now to 2030, priority should be given to focusing resources on developing some sections of the North-South economic corridor based on the North-South expressway, combined with coastal roads and prioritizing three East-West economic corridors of Lao Cai - Hanoi - Hai Phong - Quang Ninh associated with the Kunming corridor; economic corridor Moc Bai - Ho Chi Minh City - Vung Tau associated with economic corridor to Asia; Lao Bao - Dong Ha - Da Nang economic corridor associated with the East - West economic corridor in the Greater Mekong sub-region.

On the other hand, it is not necessary to focus on developing the whole route, but on choosing corridors that have the function of connecting industrial parks, and economic zones with modern urban areas to form an urban-industrial corridor to promote efficiency.

Thank you very much!