Year-end gold prices are risky

	What are fines for bringing cash, gold or foreign currency without customs declaration?
	Exports to Americas: "Golden opportunity" amid pandemic
	Invest in gold at this time, need to be cautious

The domestic gold market is still quite quiet. Photo: H. Diu

Will still increase

In 2020, the gold price has fluctuated, especially before the pessimism of investors about the economic prospects when it was knocked out by the Covid-19 pandemic. In April, there was a time when the world gold price topped US$2,200 per ounce. But by the end of the year, before the positive news about the Covid-19 vaccine, as well as the progress of the power transfer at the White House, gold prices had more "milder" fluctuations, back down to below $1,800 per ounce.

According to the General Statistics Office under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, in November, the world gold price increased and decreased. On average, the world gold price as of November 25, decreased by 1.27% compared to October. But according to experts, in nearly one year, the world gold price has increased by about 26% compared to the end of 2019. According to data from the World Gold Association, total global gold investment demand (bullion, money gold and exchange-traded funds - ETFs specialising in gold investment) in the first nine months of 2020 amounted to 1,630 tonnes, an increase of 63% from the same period in 2019.

In the domestic market, representatives of some gold shops in Vietnam said although the price of gold still increased rapidly following the general trend of the world, rising momentum stretched into weekly and monthly. The translation is quite quiet, helping the gold price in the last three months not increase or decrease dramatically like earlier this year. Moreover, the State Bank always declares the readiness of response scenarios and intervenes in the gold and foreign currency market if necessary, helping to stabilise the psychology of the people and domestic investors.

Annually, due to market sentiment as well as financial needs at the end of the year, investors sell gold for money to spend; making gold prices in general in the last months of the year and the beginning of next year decrease. However, the context this year may create another movement, especially when the USD Index (the index measuring the strength of the USD with other currencies in the world) is at the lowest level in the last more than two years - below 92 points, creating pressure to prevent the gold price from falling too deeply even though investors are selling off. According to analysts, in the long term, the gold price will still have many positive developments, because gold is a useful "hedge" to prevent inflation and currency decline when many countries launch economic rescue packages.

Financial expert Thai Viet Dung, representative of Exness Group, said gold is offered as a safe haven for investors because investing in gold is usually less risky. Therefore, even in 2020, the gold market has fluctuated upwards, causing the current gold price to reach a record high since the economic crisis of 2011; but with the future prospects of economies still unclear, the demand for gold and other precious metals will increase strongly in the final months of the year.

Risk is still there

According to the General Statistics Office, the domestic gold price index in November increased by 0.87% over the previous month; up 32.04% from December 2019 and up 31.57% over the same period last year. But when the world gold price fluctuates with a strong amplitude, domestic gold trading enterprises often set a high difference in buying and selling prices due to concerns ofrisks, making the domestic gold price significantly different from the world gold price after conversion, the current price of SJC gold is still 3-4 million VND pertael higher than the world gold price.

Facing this situation, domestic experts warn the local gold market still has many potential risks, so gold investors should be cautious and it is easy to "cut hands" if speculating in gold at this time. According to finance - banking expert Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, investing in gold is still suitable for knowledgeable investors, because gold prices can reverse, increase or decrease immediately when there is impactful information. Moreover, all forecasts will be forecasts only because they depend on many economic - political - social developments and the pandemic in many countries. Expert Nguyen Tri Hieu said the gold price still fluctuates strongly or not depends on the pandemic situation in many countries, including the US and Europe. Besides, the effects of the power transfer of the US president can also affect the financial markets worldwide. So, experts warn, investors need to monitor information regularly, invest gold in the direction of long-term savings and should not speculate in the short-term.